Drug production in Afghanistan, historically the main source of heroin supplied to Europe, remains strategically significant because production systems adapt rapidly to political change, enforcement pressure and market demand. Taliban drug bans have reshaped, rather than removed, production, processing and storage, complicating monitoring and early warning. For policymakers, the core challenge is understanding how these systems evolve, relocate and absorb shocks before impacts are felt in European markets. This report clarifies what innovative data and methods can reliably indicate, where uncertainty remains, and why managing that uncertainty is central to effective policy.

Table of contents:

• Executive summary
• Introduction
• Opiates production: multiple stages require different monitoring methods
• Methamphetamine: a newer, less visible production system
• Conclusions
• Recommendations for policymakers
• References