Oguzman, Emre and Morris, Eva J A and Quinn, Matthew and Rowe, Ian and Shepperd, Sasha and Webster, James and Zhong, Xiaomin and Goldacre, Raph (2026) Temporal trends in alcohol-related liver disease mortality and prior inpatient care in England before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2004-2024): a population-based observational study. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Early online, https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2025-225179.
External website: https://jech.bmj.com/content/early/2026/08/12/jech...
BACKGROUND: Mortality from alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) in England rose after the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing reports lack data on prior healthcare use, which is key to understanding care pathways before death. This study examined long-term trends in ARLD mortality before, during and after the pandemic and assessed changes in relation to prior inpatient care.
METHODS: In this population-based observational study using English national mortality records linked to NHS hospital data, all ARLD deaths in adults aged 25-84 were analysed from January 2004 to December 2024. Monthly mortality trends were examined by age, sex, deprivation, region and prior inpatient care. Interrupted time series estimated changes in mortality after the pandemic onset.
RESULTS: Over the study period, 97 058 ARLD deaths occurred, with about one-third out-of-hospital. Following the pandemic, ARLD mortality increased by 27.7% (95% CI 23.3% to 32.3%), representing 5571 excess deaths between March 2020 and December 2024. The step-increase was greater for out-of-hospital deaths (34.9%, 95% CI 28.4% to 41.7%) than for in-hospital deaths (22.9%, 95% CI 18.2% to 27.8%), and the increase in out-of-hospital deaths was driven by deaths in people who had no recent discharge in the previous year (75.7%, 95% CI 61.7% to 90.9%).
CONCLUSIONS: The increase in deaths from ARLD has been driven by a disproportionate increase in those without recent inpatient care. Efforts to understand ARLD mortality should increasingly be focused on the out-of-hospital setting.
G Health and disease > Digestive / endocrine system disease > Liver disease
G Health and disease > Digestive / endocrine system disease > Liver disease > Liver cirrhosis
J Health care, prevention, harm reduction and treatment > Health care programme, service or facility > Hospital
P Demography, epidemiology, and history > Population dynamics / statistics > Substance related mortality / death
VA Geographic area > Europe > United Kingdom or Great Britain > England
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