Monitoring the Future (MTF) is an ongoing research program conducted at the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse beginning in 1975. The integrated MTF study includes annual surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students, as well as a subset of 12th grade students followed into adulthood from each graduating class. Repeating these annual crosssectional surveys over time provides data to examine  behavior change across history in consistent age segments of the adult population, as well as among key subgroups.

The panel study now has over 108,000 individuals, with approximately 28,500 surveyed each year including young adults ages 19 to 30 and adults ages 35 to 60. These data, gathered on national samples over such a large portion the lifespan, are extremely rare and can provide needed insight into the epidemiology, etiology, and life course history of substance use and relevant behaviors, attitudes, and other factors. The current report is the latest in a series of publications dating back to 1986 and updated annually since then, all available at monitoringthefuture.org.

There were notable significant changes from 2020 to 2021 among young adults ages 19 to 30:

• Increases in vaping marijuana in the past 30 days from 2020 to 2021.
• A decrease in daily drinking and an increase in binge drinking among young adults from 2020 to 2021, thereby returning to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.
• Increases in vaping nicotine in the past 30 days among young adults from 2020 to 2021.
• Decreases in the non-medical use of narcotics other than heroin among young adults from 2020 to 2021.
• Decreases in the non-medical use of some stimulants from 2020 to 2021, including amphetamines, Adderall, cocaine, and methamphetamines. 

In 2021, young adults had historically high prevalence levels of:

• Marijuana use: In 2021, marijuana use in the past 12 months and past 30 days among young adults has reached the highest levels ever recorded (since 1988).
• Nicotine vaping in the past 30 days: Since it was first measured in 2017, nicotine vaping in the past 30 days has nearly tripled among young adults to 16.1% in 2021. Nicotine vaping in the past 12 months was reported by 21.8%, just below the all-time high of 23.6% in 2019.
• High-intensity drinking: In 2021, 13.1% of young adults had 10+ drinks in a row in the past 2 weeks, which was the highest recorded since it was first measured in 2005.
• Hallucinogens other than LSD: In 2021, 6.3% of young adults reported use in the past 12 months, which was the highest recorded (since 1988). 

In 2021, young adults had historically low prevalence levels of:

• Cigarette smoking: Smoking among young adults has been declining steadily since 2004, with large and significant decreases in past 12- month use, past 30 day use, daily use, and smoking a half pack per day or more over the past 5 years and 10 years. Cigarette smoking in the past 30 days decreased by more than half in the past decade, from 21.2% in 2011 to 9.0% in 2021.
• Alcohol use: Measures of drinking in the past 12 months, past 30 days, daily drinking, and binge drinking have been decreasing over the past 10 years.
• Narcotics (opioids): Narcotics other than heroin, Vicodin, and OxyContin were all at record low levels among young adults in 2021.