BACKGROUND: Few studies have jointly assessed the relationships of genetic, environmental, and psychosocial factors with the trajectory of alcohol consumption and alcohol problems over time. In this study, we estimate relationships between a host of predictors (measured before age 16 years) and the trajectories of alcohol consumption and alcohol problems measured at five different time points, spanning from mid-adolescence (16 years) to early adulthood (23 years) using data from a large population-based birth cohort from the United Kingdom (UK).

METHODS: The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was used to assess alcohol consumption and problematic drinking at approximately ages 16, 18, 19, 21, and 23 years among participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Predictors (measured before age 16) included polygenic risk scores derived based on results from the UK Biobank, family history of drinking problems, parental monitoring, indicators of internalizing and externalizing problems, smoking, and personality measures. Latent growth models were used for analysis.

RESULTS: Results from growth models showed that most variables, including polygenic risk scores, were associated with the initial stage (i.e., the intercept), while a few variables were associated with the rate of change (i.e., slopes), such as being a female, family history of alcohol problems, and peer group deviance.

CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study indicate that genetic, familial, and personality traits related to externalization were associated with the initial level of drinking or drinking-related problems, whereas fewer variables were associated with the change in drinking or drinking-related problems over time. These findings suggest that these variables can be used to identify high-risk individuals for drinking problems early on, and it is necessary to consider age or developmental stage in alcohol research.