Main findings

Estimates from an updated version of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model for Northern Ireland suggest that:

• Both Minimum Unit Pricing policies and a ban on price-based promotions, either individually or in combination, would be effective at reducing alcohol consumption and, as a result, lead to fewer alcohol-attributable deaths, hospital admissions, criminal offences and workplace absences.
• Minimum Unit Pricing policies are more effective than promotion bans at targeting the drinking of increasing and higher risk drinkers, as they target only the cheapest alcohol, which is consumed disproportionately by heavier drinkers.
• Rates of alcohol harm are markedly higher among drinkers in poverty. Minimum Unit Pricing policies are estimated to have the largest impact on the alcohol consumption and health of the poorest drinkers, leading to a reduction in existing health inequalities.
• A Minimum Unit Pricing policy would lead to a reduction in government revenue from alcohol taxes, but this would be more than offset by reductions in costs due to alcohol in the NHS, criminal justice system, the economy and wider society. A ban on pricebased promotions is estimated to have no net effect on duty revenue, but would also reduce these wider costs.

Research questions

This report was commissioned in May 2022 by the Institute of Public Health to update previous analysis, published in 2014, using the latest available data and the most recent version of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to assess the following questions for Northern Ireland:

• What is the estimated impact of Minimum Unit Price (MUP) policies ranging from 4080p per unit? • What is the estimated impact of a ban on price-based promotions in the off-licensed trade (i.e. shops)? • What is the estimated impact of a combination of MUP and promotion ban policies?
• How do these impacts vary by drinker group (moderate, increasing risk, higher risk) and income group (in poverty, not in poverty)?