Duffy, John C and Snowdon, Christopher and Tovey, Mark (2022) The hangover. The cost of minimum alcohol pricing in Scotland. London: Institute of Economic Affairs.
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- Minimum unit pricing (MUP) sets a floor price on a unit of alcohol to prevent the sale of ‘cheap’ drinks, with the aim of reducing alcohol related harm. MUP was introduced in Scotland on 1 May 2018 at 50p per unit. This study estimates the financial cost to consumers in the four years since implementation.
- Using sales data from the Public Health Scotland evaluation, we compare off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland post-implementation with a counterfactual based on sales figures from England and Wales.
- In 2019, we estimate that off-trade sales in Scotland were four per cent lower than they would have been in the absence of MUP. This finding is similar to other published estimates. Compared to the counterfactual and excluding sales from discount retailers, 9.7 million fewer litres of pure alcohol were sold below 50p/unit, but an extra 8.2 million litres were sold at 50–64p/unit and a further 0.4 million litres were sold above 70p. The net additional cost of MUP to consumers was £93.6 million.
- Covid-19 restrictions severely disrupted the on-trade in 2020. Per capita alcohol consumption fell across the UK but sales from the off trade increased. In Scotland, excluding sales from discount retailers, consumers bought 9.9 million fewer units below 50p than they would have done in the absence of MUP, but 8.3 million units were displaced to the 50–84p price range. In total, including sales from discount retailers, we estimate that the net additional cost of MUP in 2020 was £41.4 million.
- Extrapolated over the four years of implementation, we estimate that MUP has cost Scottish consumers £270 million. This amounts to £59.39 per adult or £71.12 per drinker. This is significantly more than was projected in models prior to implementation.
- There is little evidence of health and social benefits to offset this cost. Most indicators related to alcohol-related health, crime and employment have remained similar or worsened since MUP was implemented, although many of the projected benefits were so small it would be difficult to identify them in aggregate data
Item Type
Report
Publication Type
International, Report
Drug Type
Alcohol
Intervention Type
Prevention, Harm reduction
Date
May 2022
Pages
32 p.
Publisher
Institute of Economic Affairs
Place of Publication
London
EndNote
Subjects
B Substances > Alcohol
G Health and disease > Substance use disorder (addiction) > Alcohol use disorder
G Health and disease > Disease by cause (Aetiology) > Communicable / infectious disease > Viral disease / infection > Coronavirus (COVID-19)
MP-MR Policy, planning, economics, work and social services > Economic aspects of substance use (cost / pricing)
VA Geographic area > Europe > United Kingdom > Scotland
G Health and disease > Substance use disorder (addiction) > Alcohol use disorder
G Health and disease > Disease by cause (Aetiology) > Communicable / infectious disease > Viral disease / infection > Coronavirus (COVID-19)
MP-MR Policy, planning, economics, work and social services > Economic aspects of substance use (cost / pricing)
VA Geographic area > Europe > United Kingdom > Scotland
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