Home > The macroeconomic impact of crime: a stocktaking of evidence-based approaches.

Caldera Sánchez, Aida and González Pandiellai, Alberto (2026) The macroeconomic impact of crime: a stocktaking of evidence-based approaches. Paris: OECD. OECD Economics Department working papers no.1866.

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Crime imposes significant economic and fiscal costs through its effects on productivity, investment, public finances, and institutional trust. While the macroeconomic consequences of violent crime are increasingly documented, less attention has been paid to the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing crime and improving public safety. This paper provides a policy-oriented review of evidence-based crime reduction strategies across OECD and Latin American countries. It first discusses the main channels through which crime affects economic outcomes and reviews recent trends in homicides, drug trafficking, money laundering, and cybercrime. The paper then develops a policy framework structured around three complementary pillars: control, prevention, and rehabilitation and reintegration. Drawing on OECD country desk inputs and a review of impact evaluations, it assesses which interventions have proven most effective in reducing crime and recidivism. The analysis highlights the importance of integrated approaches combining targeted law enforcement with social prevention and rehabilitation measures. It also underscores the growing relevance of cybercrime and digital resilience for macroeconomic performance and public policy. The paper concludes that systematic evaluation and stronger integration of crime-related risks into macroeconomic analysis can help improve the effectiveness and efficiency of public spending on security and crime reduction.

P. 13 - 4.2. Crimes related to drug trafficking 
Drug-related crimes are highly prevalent and play a central role in shaping patterns of violence and criminal activity. The rapid growth of drug markets and changing patterns of supply and demand (Bergman, 2018[11]) have fueled a range of offenses, including drug trafficking, production, distribution, and possession of drugs. These crimes not only contribute to violence, including homicides, but also facilitate financial fraud, money laundering, and the growth of criminal organizations, allowing them to expand into other illicit activities ( (Feldmann and Luna, 2023[8]), (Reuter, 2014[19]) and (UNODC, 2019[20]). According to the World Drug Report 2024, global drug markets have expanded rapidly, driven by the emergence of new synthetic opioids and an unprecedented supply and demand for other drugs (UNODC, 2024[21]). Cocaine production has tripled in 10 years, reaching record levels, with seizures reported in all OECD countries. These developments in drug production and trafficking have intensified competition among criminal groups and contributed to rising violence linked to organized crime, particularly in Latin America and Western Europe (UNODC, 2024[21]). Consistent with these trends, arrests for drug trafficking offenses have increased across OECD countries over the past decade (Figure 5).....

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