This paper describes the quantitative findings of a systematic literature review of research on patients on conditional discharge from forensic mental health services in England and Wales (part one of two). Conditional discharge is a frequently used discharge option which allows forensic patients to receive care within the community, while subject to certain restrictions. In total, 23 quantitative and five mixed-methods studies were included. A synthesis of the quantitative findings identified factors associated with recall and recidivism, as well as positive outcomes for patients. Patients on conditional discharge showed lower violence and recidivism rates compared to those on absolute discharge. We develop hypothesized causal links between predictors and patient outcomes using a novel method of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). The methods of this review, implications of findings, and directions for further research are discussed.

See also, Systematic review of forensic mental health patients on conditional discharge: part two – qualitative findings using a desistance lens