Key messages:
In the 2023 Tobacco and Vaping Framework, the Scottish Government committed to reviewing potential levers on price as a tool to reduce appeal of tobacco products. Public Health Scotland commissioned the University of Sheffield to assess the potential effectiveness of minimum pricing for tobacco to help Scotland achieve its goal of becoming “tobacco-free” by 2034.

• Introducing a minimum price for tobacco in Scotland, alongside the UK Government’s excise tax increases, would prevent the tobacco industry from legally selling products below the minimum price threshold. This could discourage young people from starting to smoke and motivate current smokers to consider quitting.
• Combining minimum pricing with tax increases would reduce the ability of smokers to switch to cheaper tobacco options, enhancing the public health benefits of tobacco tax increases in Scotland.
• Strengthening measures to tackle the illicit tobacco trade is essential to ensure the full impact of tax increases and minimum pricing.
• Expanding access to smoking cessation services is critical to support smokers in quitting and reduce the potential financial burden of rising tobacco prices. 
• Additional measures, such as capping tobacco wholesale prices to limit industry profitability and implementing retailer licensing fees, could be considered as part of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy.

This report models the potential impact of integrating minimum pricing into Scotland's broader tobacco control policies. It finds that the impact of minimum pricing for tobacco is greater among people living in the most deprived areas.