The nature of the drug phenomenon is changing rapidly, and recent years have seen a marked increase in the use of stimulants and dissociative substances. Geopolitical changes, the emergence of new trafficking routes, and other supply-related factors add further complexity. The dangers posed by polydrug use and the emergence of new synthetic drugs means that we will need to develop more timely sources of information, linked to risk communication systems, and more responsive harm reduction strategies, particularly in recreational settings. While we need to continue to respond effectively to the current situation, much of our focus must be on developing preparedness and anticipatory capacity in this constantly evolving field.

Policy-focused research is an attempt to identify trends that enable policymakers to respond effectively to what is expected to happen in the future. To be successful, this attempt must have some predictive power. Even in an era of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA), we would be much better prepared if the capacity to anticipate changes could be increased even by a small amount.

The catastrophic consequences of rapidly rising global temperatures have focused attention on the need to improve anticipatory governance and have strengthened the challenge to ‘presentist bias’ in policymaking.

Strategic foresight is an approach to planning and policymaking that attempts to manage uncertainty by identifying several possibilities. Foresight is described as ‘a systematic participatory process, creating collective intelligence about the medium to long-term future. It is aimed at informing present day decisions and mobilising joint actions, key features to support policy making’.

Governments, researchers, and civil society can develop anticipatory capacity by making better use of existing knowledge. This involves examining shifts in demographic, environmental, political, economic, and technological currents, and how they interact with and shape each other. Information is gathered through empirical observation, secondary data analysis, and other techniques familiar to the social and health sciences.

Foresight relies heavily on other sources of information, in particular perspectives drawn from actors from a diverse range of disciplines and expertise. The synthesis of these perspectives provides policymakers with a new knowledge resource, a map of future events and the navigational tools to prepare and plan for them by acting in the present. Engagement in foresight brings together the various actors in a policy community to share insights and incentivises them to think about future possibilities.

This can impact the wider policy and political process through recognition of the value of long-term thinking and can facilitate difficult and complex decision-making in the present. There is significant overlap between Ireland’s National Drugs Strategy (2017–2025) and the European Union (EU) Drugs Strategy (2021–2025), and preparations will shortly begin for their successors, starting in 2026.

Both strategies emphasise the importance of research and adopting an evidence-based approach to implementation, with the EU strategy placing foresight alongside research and innovation as one of the strategy’s drivers. It will be interesting to see what reflections emerge from the evaluation of the EU strategy and what insights have been gained from its foresight exercises.