INTRODUCTION: Globally, the use of vapes, or e-cigarettes, is increasing. While vaping is less harmful than smoking and may help smokers to quit, there is also the possibility that vaping may lead to smoking. The current study aimed to determine the prevalence of vaping and smoking in Aotearoa New Zealand and explore longitudinal pathways between smoking status and vape use.

METHOD: Data related to smoking and vaping status was analysed from Times 10, 11 and 12 across 2018-2020 of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values study, a large, representative, multi-wave study of adults living in New Zealand. Weighted descriptive analyses were used to determine prevalence rates of vaping and smoking and a generalised linear modelling approach was used to examine the likelihood of changing to, or taking up, the other behaviour in the transition between time points.

RESULTS: Broadly, the prevalence of smoking was found to be decreasing over time while the prevalence of vaping was increasing. Despite these general trends, no differences were observed in the likelihood of transitioning from smoking to vaping or from vaping to smoking, indicating that either pathway was equally as likely.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The current findings demonstrate that vaping appeared to be just as likely to have a gateway effect to smoking as it was to have a cessation effect. This highlights the need for greater consideration regarding vaping-related policies and restrictions.