This report and briefing paper look at the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol (MUP) on alcohol sales in Scotland after three years of implementation. 

Key messages:

• Three full years after implementation, the impact of MUP was a net reduction of 3.0% (−4.2% to −1.8%) in the total volume of pure alcohol sold per adult in Scotland, when using a method that accounts for sales in England & Wales (best available geographical control) and after adjustment for other potentially confounding factors. This reflects a 1.1% fall in Scotland in contrast to a 2.4% increase in England & Wales.
• The reduction in total alcohol sales was driven by a 3.6% (−4.8% to −2.5%) reduction in sales of alcohol through the off-trade. We found no evidence to suggest that MUP caused any changes in per-adult sales of alcohol through the on-trade.
• The overall reduction was driven by reduced per-adult sales of cider, perry, spirits and beer through the off-trade, although this was partially offset by increased off-trade sales of fortified wine and, to a lesser extent, wine.
• Our main finding was robust to a range of different conditions as tested through sensitivity analyses. Results from the sensitivity analyses suggested a reduction in total per-adult sales of pure alcohol in the range of 3−4%, and of 4−5% in per-adult sales through the off-trade.
• Our analytical method allowed us to take account of underlying trends in the data. We included adjustment for the best available geographical control and other external factors, including disposable household income and COVID-19 associated restrictions, as well as running a range of sensitivity analyses. The methods and measures we have used provide confidence that our findings are a result of the implementation of MUP.
• We conclude that MUP has been effective in reducing alcohol consumption at the population level in the first three years of implementation.