The recently published Health Research Board overview on substance use among young people included some encouraging trends in relation to alcohol consumption. The age at which people start to drink has increased and more adolescents are abstaining from alcohol. In this issue of Drugnet, the overview’s lead author reviews recent international literature on the topic of changing alcohol consumption behaviour. Explanations for these changes include increased parental awareness of the harms associated with early initiation of alcohol use, a greater emphasis on wellbeing among young people, and more time spent socialising online resulting in fewer opportunities to consume alcohol with peers.

The delay in initiating alcohol use is, of course, welcome. We know from longitudinal studies in many countries that this delay is an important protective factor for hazardous drinking and developing alcohol dependency later in life. While there is some interesting theorising on changes in alcohol use patterns, it is noteworthy that, given data available on all aspects of young people lives, these changes were not predicted.

Policy-focused research is an attempt to identify trends that enable policymakers to respond effectively to what is expected to happen in the future. To be successful, this attempt must have some predictive power. Otherwise, how will we know what problems we need to prepare for? Of course, shifts in patterns of drug use do not happen quickly and treatment and harm reduction services have proven to be nimble in adapting to new situations. These are resources that have been developed over many decades and will continue to perform well. But how much better prepared would our responses be if the capacity to anticipate changes could be increased even by a small amount?

We have seen the emergence of foresight thinking in policy development, and a growing confidence that it is possible to shape future events through greater preparedness. This is not prediction, as such, but consideration of a range of responses to emerging phenomena. These approaches rely on observation of shifts in demographic, environmental, political, economic, and technological currents, and how these currents interact and shape each other. Information is gathered through empirical observation, secondary data analysis, and other techniques familiar to the social and health sciences.

When we consider how central the cultural lives of young people is in the decline in alcohol consumption, it is surprising that there has been limited attention to this sphere in anticipating future threats and response opportunities. Particular substances are associated with the prevailing youth culture, for instance the counterculture and experimentation of the 1960s or the search for community in the dance music scene of the 1990s. We should look closer at how young people today meet, play, and interact if we wish to anticipate directions in substance use.

We have detailed information on young people’s health, behaviour, and the concerns they have in negotiating the transition to adulthood. We also need to know how they decide on the combination of experiences that will bring them fulfilment, inclusion, and pleasure. This will involve exploring new methods for involving young people in research and using innovative approaches to study expressions of youth culture in popular media. Integrating findings from research outside the traditional health and social science disciplines will be a challenge, but the reward will be a greater appreciation of young people’s lives and the culture they experience and help to create.