MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Estimates from an updated version of the Scottish adaptation the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model suggest:

1. A 50p minimum unit price would be effective in reducing alcohol consumption among hazardous and, particularly, harmful drinkers. These consumption reductions would lead to reductions in alcohol-related mortality and hospitalisations.

2. Moderate drinkers would experience only small impacts on their alcohol consumption and spending as a result of introducing a 50p minimum unit price. This is because they tend to buy alcohol which would be subject to little or no increase in price following introduction of the policy.

3. To achieve the same reduction in alcohol-related deaths among hazardous and harmful drinkers as a 50p minimum unit price, a 28% increase in alcohol taxation would be required. Compared to a 50p minimum unit price, a 28% increase in alcohol taxes would lead to slightly larger reductions in alcohol consumption among moderate and hazardous drinkers but smaller reductions in consumption among harmful drinkers and, particularly, harmful drinkers in poverty. Harmful drinkers in poverty are the group at greatest risk from their alcohol consumption.

4. Increases in consumer spending on alcohol would be modest under a 50p MUP and spending would decline for harmful drinkers in poverty. Larger changes in consumer spending would be seen under a 28% tax increase and spending would increase in all groups including among harmful drinkers in poverty.