Research Report 77 looks at the relationship between an offender’s debut offence (first proven offence) and their future offending, using data from the UK Police National Computer (PNC). The study considers whether the type of crime committed as a first offence predicts chronic or serious offending and also looks at how the numbers and types of first offences have changed over time.

The analysis shows that offenders who committed robbery, burglary or vehicle theft as their debut offence in 2001 were most likely to become chronic offenders and that this small group were responsible for a disproportionate amount of re-offences by the cohort.

The authors consider the potential impact of the changes in the numbers of first time offenders committing key debut offences on levels of future offending and put forward suggestions for policies to reduce levels of crime.