Home > Estimating the prevalence of problematic opiate use in Ireland using indirect statistical methods.

Hay, Gordon and Jaddoa, Ali and Oyston, Jane and Webster, Jane and Van Hout, Marie Claire and Rael dos Santos, Anderson (2017) Estimating the prevalence of problematic opiate use in Ireland using indirect statistical methods. Dublin: National Advisory Committee on Drugs and Alcohol.

[img]
Preview
PDF (Estimating the prevalence of problematic opiate use in Ireland using indirect statistical methods) - Published Version
787kB

This report presents the results of a study that used the four-sample capture-recapture method, along with the multiple indicator method, to estimate the number of opiate users in Ireland in 2014, along with trend information for 2011 to 2014. There were four data sources used within the analyses, three of which were derived from the Central Treatment List (CTL). These three CTL data sources were constructed from data relating to Clinics, GPs and Prison. The fourth source was derived from Irish Probation Service data.

Table 1 presents a summary of the main results of the study, stratified by age group, gender and by a Co. Dublin/Rest of State split.

In total there were an estimated 18,988 opiate users in Ireland in 2014. The 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) for this estimate is 18,720– 21,454. This corresponds to a prevalence rate of 6.18 per thousand population aged 15 to 64 (95% CI 6.09–6.98). The majority were male (69%) with approximately two thirds in the older 35 to 64 age group.

The estimate for Co. Dublin (Dublin City, Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal and South Dublin) was 13,458 (95% CI 12,564–14,220). The prevalence rate for Co. Dublin was higher than the rest of the State at 15.15 per thousand population aged 15 to 64 (95% CI 14.14–16.00). Estimates were also provide for Cork City, Galway City, Limerick City and Waterford City, with Cork having an estimated prevalence rate of 5.67 per thousand population, Galway having an estimated prevalence of 1.93 per thousand, Limerick with an estimated prevalence of 8.82 per thousand and Waterford with a prevalence of 6.72 per thousand.

Estimates were also derived for Counties (n=30), Local and Regional Drugs Task Force areas (n=24) and Community Healthcare Organisation (CHO) areas (n=9) with the Drugs Task Force areas in Dublin having the highest estimated prevalence rates.

Estimates for 2011, 2012 and 2013 were compared to the 2014 estimates to provide information on changes in opiate use prevalence over time. Although the overall prevalence rates remain stable, the prevalence in the older age group (35 to 64 years of age) appears to be increasing and this may be due to an ageing cohort effect where existing opiate users are getting older while fewer younger people initiate into opiate use.


Date:22 December 2017
Call No:REF. NACDA
Pages:19 p.
Publisher:National Advisory Committee on Drugs and Alcohol
Place of Publication:Dublin
EndNote:View
Accession Number:HRB 5354 (Available), HRB 5355 (Available)
Related URLs:
Subjects:A Drugs and alcohol use, abuse, and dependence > Prevalence of drugs and alcohol use
A Drugs and alcohol use, abuse, and dependence > Prevalence of drugs and alcohol use > Problem drugs and alcohol use
B Drugs and alcohol substances > Opioids (opiates)
MA-ML Social science, culture and community > Community action > Community involvement > AOD task forces
T Demographic characteristics > Intravenous / injecting drug user
VA Geographic area > Europe > Ireland
VA Geographic area > Europe > Ireland > Limerick
VA Geographic area > Europe > Ireland > Waterford
VA Geographic area > Europe > Ireland > Cork
VA Geographic area > Europe > Ireland > Dublin
VA Geographic area > Europe > Ireland > Galway

Repository Staff Only: item control page